Peer Reviewed Publications

Year Title (Author, Description) File Download

Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios

R. Schneider, M.C. Latham, B. Stelfox, D. Farr, S. Boutin; International J. of Forestry Research

We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. Our objective was to describe the potential outcomes of these alternative management approaches over the medium and longer term. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.


Does Expected Future Landscape Condition Support Proposed Population Objectives for Boreal Birds?

L. Mahon, E. Bayne, P. Solymos, S. Matsuoka, M. Carlson, E. Dzus, F. Schmiegelow, S. Song

L. Mahon et al. 2014. Does expected future landscape condition support proposed population objectives for boreal birds? Forest Ecology and Management 312:28-39. Abstract: Assessing the feasibility of proposed Bird Conservation Region (BCR) population objectives requires comparing expected future population size estimates to proposed population objectives. Linking statistical bird habitat models with landscape simulation models can provide a direct method for assessing the ecological and economic implications of alternative land and resource scenarios within a BCR or BCR subregion. We demonstrate our approach for analyses of future habitat supply and population size for a suite of priority landbird species using the ALCES landscape simulation model and empirical bird habitat models within a multi-use landscape located in northeast Alberta, Canada and BCR 6-Boreal Taiga Plains. We used ALCES to simulate future landscape condition over a 100 year time period under three scenarios: business as usual, protected areas, and climate change. Shortfalls between simulated population size estimates at year 30 and proposed population objectives existed for each of the four priority bird species examined suggesting that expected future landscape condition will not support proposed population objectives for these species. Boreal species strongly associated with mature and old forest habitats exhibited population declines over the 100 year simulation period. One habitat generalist, a species associated with both early and late seral stages, appeared to benefit from the range of land use scenarios examined. Our approach improves upon current static approaches used to step down BCR scale population objectives to sub-regional scale habitat objectives by utilizing statistical bird population response models to estimate density and a dynamic landscape simulation model to estimate expected future habitat condition.


Cumulative Effects Assessment, Linking Social, Economic and Governance Dimensions

Weber, M., Krogman, N., and Antoniuk, T.

Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science.


Assessing the Future Wildlife Impacts of Conservation and Development in the Mackenzie Watershed

Matt Carlson, Erin Bayne, and Brad Stelfox

Located in northwestern Canada, the Mackenzie watershed's intact boreal ecosystems support a diversity of wildlife including hundreds of migratory bird species and sensitive mammals such as the Woodland Caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The watershed also contains abundant timber and hydrocarbon resources such as the oil sands region in northern Alberta and undeveloped gas fields in the Northwest Territories. We conducted a scenario analysis to explore the long-term impacts of natural resource development to the watershed's landscapes and wildlife. Land use simulations using A Landscape Cumulative Effects Simulator (ALCES) computer model compared a business-as-usual development scenario and a conservation scenario that increased protection and implemented practices to reduce the impact of forestry and energy development. The business-as-usual scenario was predicted to reduce older forest and increase anthropogenic footprint. These simulated landscape transformations caused declines in songbird species such as the Canada Warbler (Wilsonia canadensis), Black-throated Green Warbler (Dendroica virens) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), and led to the extirpation of Woodland Caribou. By reducing landscape disturbance, the conservation scenario lessened the predicted impacts to wildlife. The scenario analysis demonstrates the importance of implementing effective conservation strategies prior to wide-scale development in boreal ecosystems.


Application of Land-Use Simulation to Protected Area Selection for Efficient Avoidance of Biodiversity Loss in Canada's Western Boreal Region

Matt Carlson, David Browne, and Carolyn Callaghan

M. Carlson, D. Browne, and C. Callaghan. 2019. Application of land-use simulation to protected area selection for efficient avoidance of biodiversity loss in Canada's western boreal region. Land Use Policy 82:821-831. Abstract: Avoided ecological loss is an appropriate measure of conservation effectiveness, but challenging to measure because it requires consideration of counterfactual conditions. Land-use simulation is a well suited but underutilized tool in this regard. As a case study for the application of land-use simulation to assess the impact of protected areas, we present a scenario analysis exploring conservation options in Canada’s western boreal forest. The cumulative effect of multiple natural resource sectors, including oil and gas, forestry, and agriculture, have substantially altered the region’s ecosystems in recent decades and elevated risk to wildlife. The evolving state of the region is such that managing risks to biodiversity requires consideration of not only today’s but also tomorrow’s conditions. We simulated the long-term (50-year) outcomes of land use and protection to caribou, fisher, fish, and resource production in each of 104 watersheds in the 693,345 km2 study area. Simulated land use caused increased risk to wildlife in response to northwards expansion of resource extraction and expansion of agricultural lands. For each watershed, indicator performance with and without protection were compared to calculate the benefit (avoided ecological loss) and cost (lost opportunity for resource production) of protection. The capacity for protected areas to avoid disturbance varied substantially across watersheds, as did the potential loss of economic opportunity. Focusing protection on cost-effective watersheds made protected area expansion a more efficient strategy for reducing wildlife risk than reducing the overall rate of natural resource production. Heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness of protection presents an opportunity to balance ecological integrity and economic growth.


ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions

Carlson, M., B. Stelfox, N. Purves-Smith, J. Straker, S. Berryman, T. Barker, B. Wilson

ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions. In: D.P. Ames, N.W.T. Quinn and A.E. Rizzoli (Eds.). Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. June 2014, San Diego, California. Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online ( addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators related to landscape composition, wildlife, ecosystem services, and the economy. Dynamics are simulated spatially, and indicator performance presented using maps and regional summaries. Simulations span three time periods: pre-industrial, past century, and next 50 years. The pre-industrial phase informs baselines from which to assess land-use impacts. Simulation of the past century reconstructs changes caused by historical land use, thereby demonstrating capacity for land use to alter ecosystems over meaningful time. A range of future (50 year) simulations allow the user to assess potential consequences of decisions related to development rate, management practices, and ecosystem protection. To facilitate application across diverse initiatives, ALCES Online is customizable through user-defined study areas, indicators, and land-use strategies.

Carlson et al 2014.pdf

Alberta oil sands development and risk management of Canadian boreal ecosystems

Carlson, M. and B. Stelfox

Alberta oil sands development and risk management of Canadian boreal ecosystems. In: J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger and B. Czech (Eds.) Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Springer, New York, New York. The majority of Alberta’s oil sands are yet to be developed due to the high cost of production, but declining conventional reserves will create high pressure to develop the resource. Simulation of the potential future effects (50 years) of accelerated oil sands development demonstrates that associated increases in landscape disturbance, human access, and industrial activity would increase GHG emissions and elevate risk to fish and wildlife. The analysis identified that impacts can be reduced but not avoided by improving management practices and limiting non-industrial access. Expansion of the protected areas network is an additional mechanism to reduce environmental risk, and the aggregated distribution of bitumen deposits provides opportunities for cost-effective protection. A land-use plan has been developed for the region with the objective of optimizing the economic potential of the oil sands while also maintaining ecosystem function, biodiversity, and human health. If the land-use plan is implemented in its entirety, including the establishment of thresholds to limit land use within bounds of ecological integrity, it may provide a model for sustainable development of hydrocarbon reserves.

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