Peer Reviewed Publications

Year Title (Author, Description) File Download
2014

ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions

Carlson, M., B. Stelfox, N. Purves-Smith, J. Straker, S. Berryman, T. Barker, B. Wilson

ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions. In: D.P. Ames, N.W.T. Quinn and A.E. Rizzoli (Eds.). Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. June 2014, San Diego, California. Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online (www.online.alces.ca) addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators related to landscape composition, wildlife, ecosystem services, and the economy. Dynamics are simulated spatially, and indicator performance presented using maps and regional summaries. Simulations span three time periods: pre-industrial, past century, and next 50 years. The pre-industrial phase informs baselines from which to assess land-use impacts. Simulation of the past century reconstructs changes caused by historical land use, thereby demonstrating capacity for land use to alter ecosystems over meaningful time. A range of future (50 year) simulations allow the user to assess potential consequences of decisions related to development rate, management practices, and ecosystem protection. To facilitate application across diverse initiatives, ALCES Online is customizable through user-defined study areas, indicators, and land-use strategies.

Carlson et al 2014.pdf
2015

Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western Canada

Carlson, M., J. Quinn, and B. Stelfox.

Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western Canada. International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) Review 11. The article describes the use of the ALCES land-use simulation model to estimate the impacts likely to result from the next 50 years of population growth in the Calgary metropolitan area. The analysis compares the consequences of continued reliance on low density suburban development with a proposed regional plan that incorporates densification. The article was published in the 50th anniversary edition of the ISOCARP (International Society of City and Regional Planners) Review titled “Reinventing Planning: Examples for the Profession”.

ISOCARP article.pdf
2015

Supplementary Methods for The Future of Wildlife Conservation and Resource Development in the Western Boreal Forest: A technical report on cumulative effects modeling of future land use scenarios

Matt Carlson and David Browne

Supplementary methods for the scenario analysis presented in the report "The Future of Wildlife Conservation and Resource Development in the Western Boreal Forest: A technical report on cumulative effects modeling of future land use scenarios"

Western-Boreal-Report_supplementary_methods.pdf
2019

Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley region

Fabio Boschetti, Hector Lozano-Montes, J. Brad Stelfox

We address the question of how to provide meaningful scientific information to support environmental decision making at the regional scale and at the temporal scale of several decades. Our application is the management of a network of marine parks in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, where the key challenges to environmental sustainability are slow-dynamics climate change processes and one-off investments in large infrastructure, which can affect the future of a region for decades to come. In this situation, strategic, rather than reactive planning is necessary and thus standard adaptive management approaches may not be effective. Prediction becomes more urgent than adaptation, in terms of assessing the long term consequence of specific economic and conservation decisions. Working at the interface between future studies, socio-economic modelling and environmental modelling, we define 18 scenarios of economic development and climate change impacts and 5 management strategies aimed at ensuring the sustainability of the marine environment. We explore these potential future trajectories using coupled models of terrestrial land use and marine ecosystem dynamics. The Alces model simulates the dynamics of bio-physical and socio-economic processes on land and the pressures these impose on the coastal and marine environment. This forces an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model used to simulate marine processes, foodweb dynamics and human activities in the marine environment. We obtain a projection of the Kimberley marine system to the year 2050, conditional on the chosen scenarios and management strategies, which is compatible with the best available knowledge of the current system state (as codified in the models’ input) and system functioning (as represented in the models’ dynamics). Our results suggest that climate change, not economic development, is the largest factor affecting the future of marine ecosystems in the Kimberley region, with sedentary species such as reef fish at greatest risk. These same species also benefit most from more stringent management strategies, especially expansion of sanctuary zones and Marine Protected Areas.

Modelling regional futures at decadal scale.pdf
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