Peer Reviewed Publications
|Year||Title (Author, Description)||File Download|
Alberta oil sands development and risk management of Canadian boreal ecosystems
Carlson, M. and B. Stelfox
Alberta oil sands development and risk management of Canadian boreal ecosystems. In: J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger and B. Czech (Eds.) Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Springer, New York, New York. The majority of Alberta’s oil sands are yet to be developed due to the high cost of production, but declining conventional reserves will create high pressure to develop the resource. Simulation of the potential future effects (50 years) of accelerated oil sands development demonstrates that associated increases in landscape disturbance, human access, and industrial activity would increase GHG emissions and elevate risk to fish and wildlife. The analysis identified that impacts can be reduced but not avoided by improving management practices and limiting non-industrial access. Expansion of the protected areas network is an additional mechanism to reduce environmental risk, and the aggregated distribution of bitumen deposits provides opportunities for cost-effective protection. A land-use plan has been developed for the region with the objective of optimizing the economic potential of the oil sands while also maintaining ecosystem function, biodiversity, and human health. If the land-use plan is implemented in its entirety, including the establishment of thresholds to limit land use within bounds of ecological integrity, it may provide a model for sustainable development of hydrocarbon reserves.
ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions
Carlson, M., B. Stelfox, N. Purves-Smith, J. Straker, S. Berryman, T. Barker, B. Wilson
ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions. In: D.P. Ames, N.W.T. Quinn and A.E. Rizzoli (Eds.). Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. June 2014, San Diego, California. Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online (www.online.alces.ca) addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators related to landscape composition, wildlife, ecosystem services, and the economy. Dynamics are simulated spatially, and indicator performance presented using maps and regional summaries. Simulations span three time periods: pre-industrial, past century, and next 50 years. The pre-industrial phase informs baselines from which to assess land-use impacts. Simulation of the past century reconstructs changes caused by historical land use, thereby demonstrating capacity for land use to alter ecosystems over meaningful time. A range of future (50 year) simulations allow the user to assess potential consequences of decisions related to development rate, management practices, and ecosystem protection. To facilitate application across diverse initiatives, ALCES Online is customizable through user-defined study areas, indicators, and land-use strategies.
|Carlson et al 2014.pdf|
Assessing the Future Wildlife Impacts of Conservation and Development in the Mackenzie Watershed
Matt Carlson, Erin Bayne, and Brad Stelfox
Located in northwestern Canada, the Mackenzie watershed's intact boreal ecosystems support a diversity of wildlife including hundreds of migratory bird species and sensitive mammals such as the Woodland Caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The watershed also contains abundant timber and hydrocarbon resources such as the oil sands region in northern Alberta and undeveloped gas fields in the Northwest Territories. We conducted a scenario analysis to explore the long-term impacts of natural resource development to the watershed's landscapes and wildlife. Land use simulations using A Landscape Cumulative Effects Simulator (ALCES) computer model compared a business-as-usual development scenario and a conservation scenario that increased protection and implemented practices to reduce the impact of forestry and energy development. The business-as-usual scenario was predicted to reduce older forest and increase anthropogenic footprint. These simulated landscape transformations caused declines in songbird species such as the Canada Warbler (Wilsonia canadensis), Black-throated Green Warbler (Dendroica virens) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), and led to the extirpation of Woodland Caribou. By reducing landscape disturbance, the conservation scenario lessened the predicted impacts to wildlife. The scenario analysis demonstrates the importance of implementing effective conservation strategies prior to wide-scale development in boreal ecosystems.
Cumulative Effects Assessment, Linking Social, Economic and Governance Dimensions
Weber, M., Krogman, N., and Antoniuk, T.
Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science.
Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios
R. Schneider, M.C. Latham, B. Stelfox, D. Farr, S. Boutin; International J. of Forestry Research
We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. Our objective was to describe the potential outcomes of these alternative management approaches over the medium and longer term. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.
Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western Canada
Carlson, M., J. Quinn, and B. Stelfox.
Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western Canada. International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) Review 11. The article describes the use of the ALCES land-use simulation model to estimate the impacts likely to result from the next 50 years of population growth in the Calgary metropolitan area. The analysis compares the consequences of continued reliance on low density suburban development with a proposed regional plan that incorporates densification. The article was published in the 50th anniversary edition of the ISOCARP (International Society of City and Regional Planners) Review titled “Reinventing Planning: Examples for the Profession”.
Influences of Human Stressors on Fish-Based Metrics for Assessing River Condition in Central Alberta
C Steves, T. Council, M. Sullivan
Economic developments in Alberta have resulted in widespread changes in land use that may deteriorate river conditions for fish. Fish assemblages were characterized with index of biological integrity metrics for the heavily-developed watershed of the Battle River, Alberta. Metric relationships with human stressors were quantified using regression and information theory methods. Although the fauna comprised 14 native species, 50% of the catch was white sucker (Catostomus commersoni Lacepede, 1803). Five statistically unrelated metrics were identified as being responsive to stressors: two trophic guilds, one habitat guild, one reproductive guild, and one measure of community structure. Regression showed that the cumulative effect of human developments, indexed as road density in the basin, was negatively linked to the relative abundance of lithophils and positively linked to the relative abundance of omnivores. Agriculture also threatened the integrity of fish assemblages. Stream sections with higher cattle densities in their basins had fewer lithophils and benthic invertivores; whereas stream sections with higher nutrient concentrations contained fewer species, as well as fewer top carnivores, but more true omnivores. Understanding effects of human footprints that are expanding in western Canada will be critical to the successful
Informing Regional Planning in Alberta's Oilsands Region with a Land-use Simulation Model
Matt Carlson et al; International Environmental Modelling and Software Society
Planning for regional sustainability requires strategic understanding of ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs associated with alternative land use options. We discuss a scenario analysis being undertaken to assess trade-offs for a 93,000 km2 region in northeastern Alberta containing the world's second largest oil deposit. Due to its immense economic and ecological value, the region presents both an opportunity and challenge for the objectives of sustainable prosperity and healthy ecosystems put forth by the Alberta government's Land-Use Framework. ALCES simulation and mapping software are being applied to inform government planners and stakeholders about possible future outcomes associated with land-use options. ALCES is well suited due to its capacity to simulate the cumulative effects of the major types of land use (hydrocarbon extraction, forestry, agriculture, residential) and natural processes (fire and meteorology) on a wide range of ecological and economic indicators. The scenario analysis provides a case study to discuss the technical aspects of ALCES and the Alberta Land-Use Framework's approach of facilitating learning through iterative scenario analysis.
Integrated Resource Management and Planning entry in the Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (eolss.net)
Matt Carlson and Brad Stelfox
Land use conflicts are increasing in intensity and frequency as a result of expanding development, a finite land base, and a growing environmental ethic. Reactionary strategies, fragmented bureaucracies, and the legacy of utilitarian management approaches have created disjointed environmental management that is poorly suited to resolve land use conflicts. Integrated approaches to resource and environmental management have emerged as an alternative. Integrate resource management (IRM) applies a number of concepts to balance development and conservation objectives: stakeholder collaboration, explicit goals and indicators, tradeoff analysis, adaptive management, monitoring, development thresholds, and zoning.
Managing Alberta's Energy Futures at the Landscape Scale
Kennett et al., ISEEE, University of Calgary
Alberta's booming energy industry is competing for space on a land base that is subject to increasing human demands from a multitude of industrial, agricultural, residential and recreational land uses. The ability of that land base to support these land uses and to sustain the province's diverse natural ecosystems is therefore a critically important issue when considering energy futures for Alberta. This paper is intended to show how the implications of energy development at the landscape scale can be understood. It also discusses key issues and options for the management of this landscape change. The data and analysis presented here illustrate the potential for integrated and interdisciplinary research to focus and inform the debate that has already begun in Alberta as decision-makers, stakeholders and individual Albertans confront inevitable and difficult choices regarding energy and landscape futures.