Peer Reviewed Publications
| Year | Title (Author, Description) | File Download |
| 2015 |
Supplementary Methods for The Future of Wildlife Conservation and Resource Development in the Western Boreal Forest: A technical report on cumulative effects modeling of future land use scenariosMatt Carlson and David BrowneSupplementary methods for the scenario analysis presented in the report "The Future of Wildlife Conservation and Resource Development in the Western Boreal Forest: A technical report on cumulative effects modeling of future land use scenarios" |
Western-Boreal-Report_supplementary_methods.pdf |
| 2010 |
Influences of Human Stressors on Fish-Based Metrics for Assessing River Condition in Central AlbertaC Steves, T. Council, M. SullivanEconomic developments in Alberta have resulted in widespread changes in land use that may deteriorate river conditions for fish. Fish assemblages were characterized with index of biological integrity metrics for the heavily-developed watershed of the Battle River, Alberta. Metric relationships with human stressors were quantified using regression and information theory methods. Although the fauna comprised 14 native species, 50% of the catch was white sucker (Catostomus commersoni Lacepede, 1803). Five statistically unrelated metrics were identified as being responsive to stressors: two trophic guilds, one habitat guild, one reproductive guild, and one measure of community structure. Regression showed that the cumulative effect of human developments, indexed as road density in the basin, was negatively linked to the relative abundance of lithophils and positively linked to the relative abundance of omnivores. Agriculture also threatened the integrity of fish assemblages. Stream sections with higher cattle densities in their basins had fewer lithophils and benthic invertivores; whereas stream sections with higher nutrient concentrations contained fewer species, as well as fewer top carnivores, but more true omnivores. Understanding effects of human footprints that are expanding in western Canada will be critical to the successful |
Stevens--Council-and-Sullivan-2010-Battle-River-study.pdf |
| 2019 |
Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Towards Integrated Natural Resource Management in CanadaCassie J. Doyle, Fikret Berkes, Stan Boutin, Matthew Carlson, Thomas Dietz, George Greene, et al.Natural Resources Canada asked the Council of Canadian Academies (CCA) to undertake an assessment on the state of knowledge and practice of integrated approaches to natural resource management in Canada. To address the question, the CCA convened a multidisciplinary panel of 13 experts from Canada and abroad. Panel members brought expertise related to biology, ecology, economics, human geography, geoscience, law, natural resource management and development, public administration, sociology, and traditional knowledge. The Panel highlighted the importance of considering multiple ways of knowing in INRM, including Indigenous and local knowledge. Although several forms of governance can apply to INRM, all models benefit from the involvement of all actors to participate in natural resource management decision-making. The Panel found that integration is needed to address current realities, and overcome the limitations of conventional approaches which focus on managing individual activities and resources. INRM calls for higher-order decision-making that embraces land-use planning and strategic assessment at regional scales, enabling better and more efficient decision-making at project-specific stages. The report details eight defining characteristics of INRM that can serve as a guide to implementation. It does not call for a complete overhaul of current resource management practices, but notes that there is sufficient knowledge and established tools to start supporting these integrated processes now. |
Report-Greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts-toward-integrated-natural-resource-management-in-Canada.pdf |
| 2010 |
Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management ScenariosR. Schneider, M.C. Latham, B. Stelfox, D. Farr, S. Boutin; International J. of Forestry ResearchWe used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. Our objective was to describe the potential outcomes of these alternative management approaches over the medium and longer term. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed. |
Pine_Beetle_Outbreak_and_ALCES.pdf |
| 2019 |
Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley regionFabio Boschetti, Hector Lozano-Montes, J. Brad StelfoxWe address the question of how to provide meaningful scientific information to support environmental decision making at the regional scale and at the temporal scale of several decades. Our application is the management of a network of marine parks in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, where the key challenges to environmental sustainability are slow-dynamics climate change processes and one-off investments in large infrastructure, which can affect the future of a region for decades to come. In this situation, strategic, rather than reactive planning is necessary and thus standard adaptive management approaches may not be effective. Prediction becomes more urgent than adaptation, in terms of assessing the long term consequence of specific economic and conservation decisions. Working at the interface between future studies, socio-economic modelling and environmental modelling, we define 18 scenarios of economic development and climate change impacts and 5 management strategies aimed at ensuring the sustainability of the marine environment. We explore these potential future trajectories using coupled models of terrestrial land use and marine ecosystem dynamics. The Alces model simulates the dynamics of bio-physical and socio-economic processes on land and the pressures these impose on the coastal and marine environment. This forces an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model used to simulate marine processes, foodweb dynamics and human activities in the marine environment. We obtain a projection of the Kimberley marine system to the year 2050, conditional on the chosen scenarios and management strategies, which is compatible with the best available knowledge of the current system state (as codified in the models’ input) and system functioning (as represented in the models’ dynamics). Our results suggest that climate change, not economic development, is the largest factor affecting the future of marine ecosystems in the Kimberley region, with sedentary species such as reef fish at greatest risk. These same species also benefit most from more stringent management strategies, especially expansion of sanctuary zones and Marine Protected Areas. |
Modelling regional futures at decadal scale.pdf |
| 2006 |
Managing Alberta's Energy Futures at the Landscape ScaleKennett et al., ISEEE, University of CalgaryAlberta's booming energy industry is competing for space on a land base that is subject to increasing human demands from a multitude of industrial, agricultural, residential and recreational land uses. The ability of that land base to support these land uses and to sustain the province's diverse natural ecosystems is therefore a critically important issue when considering energy futures for Alberta. This paper is intended to show how the implications of energy development at the landscape scale can be understood. It also discusses key issues and options for the management of this landscape change. The data and analysis presented here illustrate the potential for integrated and interdisciplinary research to focus and inform the debate that has already begun in Alberta as decision-makers, stakeholders and individual Albertans confront inevitable and difficult choices regarding energy and landscape futures. |
Managing-Alberta-s-Energy-Futures.pdf |
| 2014 |
Does Expected Future Landscape Condition Support Proposed Population Objectives for Boreal Birds?L. Mahon, E. Bayne, P. Solymos, S. Matsuoka, M. Carlson, E. Dzus, F. Schmiegelow, S. SongL. Mahon et al. 2014. Does expected future landscape condition support proposed population objectives for boreal birds? Forest Ecology and Management 312:28-39. Abstract: Assessing the feasibility of proposed Bird Conservation Region (BCR) population objectives requires comparing expected future population size estimates to proposed population objectives. Linking statistical bird habitat models with landscape simulation models can provide a direct method for assessing the ecological and economic implications of alternative land and resource scenarios within a BCR or BCR subregion. We demonstrate our approach for analyses of future habitat supply and population size for a suite of priority landbird species using the ALCES landscape simulation model and empirical bird habitat models within a multi-use landscape located in northeast Alberta, Canada and BCR 6-Boreal Taiga Plains. We used ALCES to simulate future landscape condition over a 100 year time period under three scenarios: business as usual, protected areas, and climate change. Shortfalls between simulated population size estimates at year 30 and proposed population objectives existed for each of the four priority bird species examined suggesting that expected future landscape condition will not support proposed population objectives for these species. Boreal species strongly associated with mature and old forest habitats exhibited population declines over the 100 year simulation period. One habitat generalist, a species associated with both early and late seral stages, appeared to benefit from the range of land use scenarios examined. Our approach improves upon current static approaches used to step down BCR scale population objectives to sub-regional scale habitat objectives by utilizing statistical bird population response models to estimate density and a dynamic landscape simulation model to estimate expected future habitat condition. |
Mahon_etal_2014_FutureLandscapeConditionBorealBirds.pdf |
| 2019 |
Application of Land-Use Simulation to Protected Area Selection for Efficient Avoidance of Biodiversity Loss in Canada's Western Boreal RegionMatt Carlson, David Browne, and Carolyn CallaghanM. Carlson, D. Browne, and C. Callaghan. 2019. Application of land-use simulation to protected area selection for efficient avoidance of biodiversity loss in Canada's western boreal region. Land Use Policy 82:821-831. Abstract: Avoided ecological loss is an appropriate measure of conservation effectiveness, but challenging to measure because it requires consideration of counterfactual conditions. Land-use simulation is a well suited but underutilized tool in this regard. As a case study for the application of land-use simulation to assess the impact of protected areas, we present a scenario analysis exploring conservation options in Canada’s western boreal forest. The cumulative effect of multiple natural resource sectors, including oil and gas, forestry, and agriculture, have substantially altered the region’s ecosystems in recent decades and elevated risk to wildlife. The evolving state of the region is such that managing risks to biodiversity requires consideration of not only today’s but also tomorrow’s conditions. We simulated the long-term (50-year) outcomes of land use and protection to caribou, fisher, fish, and resource production in each of 104 watersheds in the 693,345 km2 study area. Simulated land use caused increased risk to wildlife in response to northwards expansion of resource extraction and expansion of agricultural lands. For each watershed, indicator performance with and without protection were compared to calculate the benefit (avoided ecological loss) and cost (lost opportunity for resource production) of protection. The capacity for protected areas to avoid disturbance varied substantially across watersheds, as did the potential loss of economic opportunity. Focusing protection on cost-effective watersheds made protected area expansion a more efficient strategy for reducing wildlife risk than reducing the overall rate of natural resource production. Heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness of protection presents an opportunity to balance ecological integrity and economic growth. |
Land_Use_Policy_paper.pdf |
| 2015 |
Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western CanadaCarlson, M., J. Quinn, and B. Stelfox.Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies: A Planning Scenario Case Study from the Calgary Region of Western Canada. International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) Review 11. The article describes the use of the ALCES land-use simulation model to estimate the impacts likely to result from the next 50 years of population growth in the Calgary metropolitan area. The analysis compares the consequences of continued reliance on low density suburban development with a proposed regional plan that incorporates densification. The article was published in the 50th anniversary edition of the ISOCARP (International Society of City and Regional Planners) Review titled “Reinventing Planning: Examples for the Profession”. |
ISOCARP article.pdf |
| 2010 |
Informing Regional Planning in Alberta's Oilsands Region with a Land-use Simulation ModelMatt Carlson et al; International Environmental Modelling and Software SocietyPlanning for regional sustainability requires strategic understanding of ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs associated with alternative land use options. We discuss a scenario analysis being undertaken to assess trade-offs for a 93,000 km2 region in northeastern Alberta containing the world's second largest oil deposit. Due to its immense economic and ecological value, the region presents both an opportunity and challenge for the objectives of sustainable prosperity and healthy ecosystems put forth by the Alberta government's Land-Use Framework. ALCES simulation and mapping software are being applied to inform government planners and stakeholders about possible future outcomes associated with land-use options. ALCES is well suited due to its capacity to simulate the cumulative effects of the major types of land use (hydrocarbon extraction, forestry, agriculture, residential) and natural processes (fire and meteorology) on a wide range of ecological and economic indicators. The scenario analysis provides a case study to discuss the technical aspects of ALCES and the Alberta Land-Use Framework's approach of facilitating learning through iterative scenario analysis. |
Informing-Regional-Planning-in-Alberta-s-Oilsands.pdf |