Project Info

Location: Yukon Territory, Canada

Dates: 2005-2007

Project Lead: S. Francis

Client:

North Yukon Planning Commission

None

Downloads & Media

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Keywords

land use, North Yukon planning, cumulative effrects

North Yukon Planning Region Land Use Scenario Modeling

The North Yukon Planning Commission utilized the ALCES® II model to investigate plausible future land-use scenarios in the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon, Canada (Figure 1). The region is 55,570 km2, representing about 12 percent of Yukon. Oil and gas exploration and development, tourism and mining exploration and development scenarios were examined. Land-use scenario modelling was conducted for two study areas: 1) the entire planning region, and 2) the Eagle Plain oil and gas basin. The Eagle Plain oil and gas basin was considered to have the highest potential to incur significant levels of land use activity in the near future, and was therefore examined in greater detail. The potential influence of energy sector operating practice and reclamation parameter on potential landscape and wildlife habitat impacts was explored. The relative influence of important natural factors, including habitat conditions and climate change, was also examined. Scenario modelling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land-use issues and practices, levels of landscape change, and potential land use impacts. ALCES modelling results supported the cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Modelling results assisted in establishing limits of acceptable change guidelines for two integrated indicators of cumulative effects, total human-caused surface disturbance and linear density. The North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan is one of the first regional land-use plans in Canada to contain approved cumulative effects indicator guidelines. Dr. Brad Stelfox provided model development support and training to North Yukon Planning Commission staff, who conducted the scenario simulations using ALCES. Francis, S.R., and J. Hamm. 2009. North Yukon planning region land use scenarios report: ALCES® land use modeling results. November, 2009. Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada. [online] URL: <A href="http://www.planyukon.ca/index.php/documents/cat_view/81-north-yukon-planning-commission-documents/102-land-use-scenarios.html" mce_href="http://www.planyukon.ca/index.php/documents/cat_view/81-north-yukon-planning-commission-documents/102-land-use-scenarios.html">http://www.planyukon.ca/index.php/documents/cat_view/81-north-yukon-planning-commission-documents/102-land-use-scenarios.html</A> Francis, S.R., and J. Hamm. (accepted November 2011). Looking forward: Using scenario modeling to support regional land use planning in Northern Yukon, Canada. Ecology and Society xx(x). Yukon Government and Vuntut Gwitchin Government. 2009. North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Nichih Gwanał’in—Looking Forward. June, 2009. Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada. [online] URL: <A href="http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/lands/nyrlup.html" mce_href="http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/lands/nyrlup.html">http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/lands/nyrlup.html</A> Figure 1. North Yukon Planning Region land-use scenario modelling study area. Source: S. Francis.<IMG src="http://www.alces.ca/downloads/yukon-francis.jpg">